Description: Charts created for the paper:

Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A. M., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G. 2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal. under revision (2023).

Data

Reference emissions

target region period tgt55 tgt57 tgt59 tgt61 tgt63 tgt65
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation EU-27 2030 2117 2023 1929 1835 1741 1647
Emissions with LULUCF and without international transport Germany 2030 449

Efficiency targets

target Final_Energy_Mtoe Final_Energy_Twa reduction_from_2020_Reference_Scenario
reference 846 1.1235 0.02
FitFor55 eff 787 1.0452 0.09
RePowerEU eff 750 0.9960 0.13

2040 Emission Reductions

variable mainScenario minTarget maxTarget
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation 86% 82% 92%
Emissions with LULUCF and with international transport 84% 80% 91%

Results

direct_electrification reference_value_EJ min_EJ max_EJ reference_value_Mtoe min_Mtoe max_Mtoe
total 13.9 12.0 14.5 332.0 286.6 346.3
buildings 6.4 5.5 6.7 152.9 131.4 160.0
transport 3.0 2.7 3.0 71.7 64.5 71.7
industry 4.5 3.9 4.8 107.5 93.1 114.6
indirect_electrification reference_value_EJ min_EJ max_EJ reference_value_Mtoe min_Mtoe max_Mtoe
total 1.3 0.9 1.4 31.0 21.5 33.4
buildings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
transport 0.2 0.1 0.2 4.8 2.4 4.8
industry 1.1 0.8 1.2 26.3 19.1 28.7
indirect_electrification_detail reference_value_EJ min_EJ max_EJ reference_value_Mtoe min_Mtoe max_Mtoe
total_H2 1.2 0.9 1.3 28.7 21.5 31.0
total_efuels 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.4 0.0 2.4
buildings_H2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
buildings_efuels 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
transport_H2 0.2 0.1 0.2 4.8 2.4 4.8
transport_efuels 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4
industry_H2 1.0 0.8 1.2 23.9 19.1 28.7
industry_efuels 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4
electricity_demand_upscale reference_value min max
2030 127 118 128
2040 154 134 161
electricity_share_in_FE reference_value min max
2030 31 31 33
2040 49 45 58
wind_and_Solar_gen_upscale reference_value min max
2030 3.8 3.0 4.0
2040 6.9 4.7 7.8
result reference_value min max
Wind_and_Solar_participation_2040_% 79 66 82
Electricity_Generation reference_value min max
coal_in_generation_(%) 0.00 0.00 0.65
gas_in_generation_(%) 2.72 0.68 10.12
nuclear_in_generation_(%) 6.21 5.70 7.52
wind_and_Solar_gen_(%) 78.66 66.11 81.65
wind_and_Solar_cap_(TW) 2.42 1.64 2.74
FE reference_value_2020 reference_value_2040 min max
share_of_fossil_without_CCS_in_electricity_(%) 40 3 1 11
Primary_Energy relative_to_2020 min max
Biomass 100.2 69.5 126.2
Coal 3.0 2.6 32.8
Gas 38.8 16.4 88.9
Oil 39.1 25.9 74.3
Primary_Energy_Imports relative_to_2020
Biomass 218.3
Coal 7.2
Gas 39.2
Oil 39.5
FE relative_to_2020
Gas_and_hydrogen_(%) 65.6
FE reference_value min max
fe_electricity_relative_to_2020_(%) 154.3 133.7 161.2
fe_electricity_2040(Mtoe) 332.0 287.0 346.0
FE reference_value min max
transport_electricity_(%) 234.6 216.6 243.6
FE reference_value min max
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_aviation_(%) 21.4 18.1 36.2
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_shipping_(%) 14.9 12.0 30.2
FE reference_value min max
share_of_electric_and_district_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%) 66 60 83
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_(%) 29 12 36
share_of_solids_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%) 5 4 5
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_2020_(%) 49 49 49
FE reference_value min max
share_of_build_FE_in_relation_to_2020_(%) 33 26 55
FE reference_value min max
share_of_EVs_in_LDVs_(%) 100 100 100
FE_chemicals reference_value min max
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2020 (%) 4 4 4
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2030 (%) 9 8 12
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2040 (%) 20 18 33
FE_other_industry reference_value min max
hydrocarbons_2020 (%) 46 46 46
hydrocarbons_2030 (%) 36 31 38
hydrocarbons_2040 (%) 26 17 28

Carbon Management Results

result reference_value min max
CCS_deployment_in_2030_MtCO2 18 8 19
CCS_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2 188 56 258
CCS_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_% 26 16 30
novel_CDR_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_% 26 21 36
novel_CDR_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2 132 43 192

Milestones upscaling rates

share_of_electricity_in_final_energy reference_value min max
2030 31.4 30.6 33.3
2040 49.5 45.3 58.4
result reference_value min max
FE_Transport_change_% -46 -56 -45
FE_Buildings_change_% -22 -44 -16
FE_Industry_change_% -21 -43 -14
result reference_value min max
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 4.5 4.2 5.0
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 5.3 4.7 6.7
result reference_value min max
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% -15.8 -16.1 -15.3
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 4.6 4.0 5.8
Transport_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 15.1 14.4 16.0
Buildings_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 2.7 1.8 4.3
Industry_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 2.1 1.5 3.4
result reference_value min max
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 19.1 14.1 20.7
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2040_to_2050_% 5.8 2.3 6.9
result reference_value min max
Electricity_Demand_increase_2020_to_2040_(%) 56.2 35.3 63.2
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2022_to_2030_(Twh) 87.0 59.0 91.0
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2030_to_2040_(Twh) 69.0 40.0 88.0
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 3.1 2.2 3.3
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2020_to_2030_% 2.4 1.6 2.5
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 2.0 1.3 2.5
result reference_value min max
SolarPV_2022_vs_2040_X 8.3 5.9 9.3
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 6.9 5.9 7.9
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_% 12.5 10.4 13.2
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 19.8 15.9 20.3
result reference_value min max
wind_2022_vs_2040_X 2.7 1.6 3.2
Wind_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 6.4 3.6 7.2
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_% 5.7 2.6 6.6
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 4.7 1.4 5.9
result reference_value min max
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2030 1970 1782 2033
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2040 928 563 1059
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2050 369 124 474

Figure 1. Emission results panel

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios reaching climate neutrality by 2050. Central values are given for the reference scenario (57% reduction by 2030, reference final energy projections, biomass availability limited to 7.5 EJ/yr and default CCS assumption), ranges for the full scenario ensemble. Percentage values in plot (b) are based on GHG emissions with LULUCF and intra-EU aviation for years 2030-2040, and based on GHG emissions with LULUC and all bunkers for years 2045 and 2050. Percentage values in plot (c) stand for residual emissions in a sector compared to 1990 emissions.

Figure 2. Electricity panel

Figure 2. Electricity supply and demand. (a) Electricity decarbonisation in terms of shares, (b) upscaling of photovoltaics, and (c) the transition to electricity as the main energy carrier.

Figure 3. Energy supply panel

Figure 3. Fuel Supply and Demand. Primary Energy use (a), fossil energy carriers trade (b), Gases final energy demand (c), hydrogen production (d).

Figure 4. Demand panel

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Figure 4. Sectoral transformation indicators. (a) Transport final energy; (b) Light duty vehicles sales shares (bars) and share of ICEs in total LDV stock (line); (c) Useful energy demand for heating in buildings; (d) Industry emissions; (e) Carbon Capture and Storage by activity (upper bar), origin (middle bar) and by destination (lower bar).

Figure 5. Targets update

Figure 5. Comparison of key energy transformation indicators including fit-for-55 policy targets for 2030 and 2040. Red cross symbols represent the results of the reference scenario. Box-plots show the range from first to third quartile of the sensitivity scenarios, while the shaded areas show the distribution of the scenario results. More information about the chart symbols and indicators can be found at the supplementary notes.

Supplementary Information:

Supplementary figure 1. VRE sensitivity.

  1. Limited VRE target reduction (%)

Supplementary figure 1. VRE sensitivity. (a) EU-27 Variable renewable energy capacity: reference scenario vs. limited VRE sensitivity. (b) 2040 emission reduction targets: default paper scenarios vs. limited VRE cases.

Supplementary figure 2. EU-27 carbon price

Supplementary figure 2. EU-27 carbon price. Carbon price across all scenarios (a), and variation per sensitivity dimension (b). Red cross symbols in (b) represent the results of the reference scenario. Box-plots in (b) show the range from first to third quartile of the sensitivity scenarios.

Supplementary figure 3. EU-27 mitigation costs.

Supplementary figure 3. EU-27 mitigation costs. Energy supply investments in the reference scenario.

SSupplementary figure 4. EU-27 Electricity capacity

Supplementary figure 4. EU-27 Electricity capacity. EU-27, Germany, and France electricity capacity (GW) in the reference scenario.

Supplementary figure 5. EU-27 Electricity generation

Supplementary figure 5. EU-27 Electricity generation. EU-27, Germany, France, north EU countries (EUN), central and east EU countries (EU Central), south and west EU countries (EU South), electricity generation (TWh) in the reference scenario.

Supplementary figure 6. EU-27 Emissions

Supplementary figure 6. EU-27 Emissions. Energy and non-energy use in the reference scenario (a) per sector and carrier and (b) per fossil content.

Supplementary figure 7. EU-27 GHG gases

Supplementary figure 7. EU-27 GHG gases. Emissions by gas in the reference scenario (CO2eq).

Supplementary figure 8. EU-27 CDR

Supplementary figure 8. EU-27 CDR. CDR deployment: (a) BECCS and (b) DACCS.